Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Saraswanti Anugerah Makmur, Tbk (SAMF.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,113.32 - $5,160.88$4,836.50
Multi-Stage$858.79 - $938.85$898.09
Blended Fair Value$2,867.30
Current Price$320.00
Upside796.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS36.31%0.00%21.1415.588.358.715.154.493.992.8210.990.00
YoY Growth--35.70%86.59%-4.15%69.13%14.64%12.57%41.73%-74.38%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.33%4.24%2.74%2.88%2.59%5.55%4.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)265,991.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)227,716.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)38,274.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53,198.2833,248.9219,949.35
Cash Retained (M)38,274.8638,274.8638,274.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-53,198.28-33,248.92-19,949.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)-14,923.425,025.9318,325.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,250.0010,250.0010,250.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.460.491.79
LTM Dividend per Share22.2222.2222.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.460.491.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend20.7622.7124.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,113.32$4,836.50$5,160.88
Upside / Downside872.91%1,411.41%1,512.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)265,991.40283,280.84301,694.09321,304.21342,188.98364,431.26375,364.20
Payout Ratio85.61%86.49%87.37%88.24%89.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)227,716.54245,005.04263,578.95283,532.32304,966.00327,988.14347,211.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)228,527.81230,693.95232,860.09
Year 2 PV (M)229,318.34233,686.21238,095.29
Year 3 PV (M)230,088.37236,693.38243,423.60
Year 4 PV (M)230,838.14239,715.52248,846.52
Year 5 PV (M)231,567.87242,752.69254,365.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,652,272.198,021,879.808,405,633.16
Equity Value (M)8,802,612.729,205,421.559,623,224.23
Shares Outstanding (M)10,250.0010,250.0010,250.00
Fair Value$858.79$898.09$938.85
Upside / Downside168.37%180.65%193.39%

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