Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ratchaphruek Hospital Public Company Limited (RPH.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.51 - $64.20$60.16
Multi-Stage$8.92 - $9.74$9.32
Blended Fair Value$34.74
Current Price$4.98
Upside597.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.70%26.28%0.300.260.460.150.100.100.110.100.100.24
YoY Growth--15.44%-42.22%200.19%49.70%0.61%-10.35%12.27%-0.86%-57.97%715.55%
Dividend Yield--5.69%4.32%7.54%2.41%1.83%2.16%2.34%2.11%1.79%5.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)148.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.6821.6813.01
Cash Retained (M)25.0525.0525.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.68-21.68-13.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)-9.633.3812.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)537.18537.18537.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.51$60.16$64.20
Upside / Downside311.92%1,108.08%1,189.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173.40184.67196.68209.46223.08237.58244.71
Payout Ratio85.55%86.44%87.33%88.22%89.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)148.35159.64171.76184.79198.79213.82226.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)148.03149.43150.83
Year 2 PV (M)147.69150.51153.35
Year 3 PV (M)147.34151.57155.88
Year 4 PV (M)146.98152.63158.44
Year 5 PV (M)146.60153.68161.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,054.014,249.824,453.12
Equity Value (M)4,790.655,007.645,232.66
Shares Outstanding (M)537.18537.18537.18
Fair Value$8.92$9.32$9.74
Upside / Downside79.08%87.19%95.60%

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