Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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REV Group, Inc. (REVG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.72 - $53.56$38.87
Multi-Stage$25.17 - $27.53$26.33
Blended Fair Value$32.60
Current Price$51.27
Upside-36.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.31%52.79%0.253.770.240.240.130.190.250.250.130.00
YoY Growth---93.28%1,486.78%-2.42%87.88%-30.53%-24.00%-2.34%100.66%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.49%10.87%1.22%1.90%0.97%1.75%2.46%3.03%0.43%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)95.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)81.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.0411.907.14
Cash Retained (M)81.8081.8081.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.04-11.90-7.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.7669.9074.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)50.9150.9150.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.231.371.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.231.371.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.501.641.73
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate4.31%5.31%6.31%
Fair Value$28.72$38.87$53.56
Upside / Downside-43.98%-24.19%4.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)95.20100.25105.58111.18117.09123.30127.00
Payout Ratio14.08%29.26%44.45%59.63%74.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.4029.3446.9266.3087.60110.97117.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate4.31%5.31%6.31%
Year 1 PV (M)26.4826.7326.98
Year 2 PV (M)38.2338.9639.71
Year 3 PV (M)48.7550.1651.61
Year 4 PV (M)58.1360.3962.72
Year 5 PV (M)66.4769.7273.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,043.541,094.531,147.50
Equity Value (M)1,281.601,340.501,401.61
Shares Outstanding (M)50.9150.9150.91
Fair Value$25.17$26.33$27.53
Upside / Downside-50.90%-48.64%-46.30%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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