Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Qube Holdings Limited (QUB.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.63 - $2.42$2.01
Multi-Stage$1.61 - $1.74$1.67
Blended Fair Value$1.84
Current Price$4.28
Upside-57.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.96%13.33%0.090.080.080.060.040.050.080.050.030.03
YoY Growth--10.85%7.82%27.85%53.96%-21.82%-33.90%59.93%46.52%5.32%16.54%
Dividend Yield--2.16%2.30%2.71%2.21%1.24%1.73%2.58%2.05%1.28%1.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)336.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)311.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.2242.0125.21
Cash Retained (M)25.1025.1025.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.22-42.01-25.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)-42.12-16.91-0.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,769.861,769.861,769.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate15.31%15.31%15.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1.63$2.01$2.42
Upside / Downside-61.84%-53.09%-43.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)336.10357.95381.21405.99432.38460.49474.30
Payout Ratio92.53%92.03%91.52%91.01%90.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)311.00329.40348.88369.50391.33414.44438.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.31%15.31%15.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)282.97285.66288.34
Year 2 PV (M)257.47262.37267.32
Year 3 PV (M)234.25240.97247.83
Year 4 PV (M)213.12221.32229.75
Year 5 PV (M)193.89203.26212.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,666.831,747.341,830.93
Equity Value (M)2,848.542,960.923,077.14
Shares Outstanding (M)1,769.861,769.861,769.86
Fair Value$1.61$1.67$1.74
Upside / Downside-62.40%-60.91%-59.38%

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