Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Prodia Widyahusada Tbk (PRDA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Diagnostics & ResearchSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9,135.46 - $40,859.82$21,317.18
Multi-Stage$4,928.11 - $5,378.67$5,149.32
Blended Fair Value$13,233.25
Current Price$2,650.00
Upside399.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.14%10.37%167.73240.38402.07173.83113.3394.5765.0228.5080.85107.80
YoY Growth---30.22%-40.21%131.30%53.38%19.84%45.44%128.14%-64.75%-25.00%72.41%
Dividend Yield--6.48%6.21%6.84%2.17%2.83%3.21%2.24%0.78%1.60%1.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)190,589.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)162,118.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)28,471.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38,117.8023,823.6314,294.18
Cash Retained (M)28,471.0028,471.0028,471.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-38,117.80-23,823.63-14,294.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)-9,646.804,647.3814,176.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)927.64927.64927.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share-10.405.0115.28
LTM Dividend per Share174.76174.76174.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share-10.405.0115.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend164.36179.77190.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.40%7.40%7.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$9,135.46$21,317.18$40,859.82
Upside / Downside244.73%704.42%1,441.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)190,589.00202,977.29216,170.81230,221.91245,186.34261,123.45268,957.15
Payout Ratio85.06%86.05%87.04%88.02%89.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)162,118.00174,660.45188,148.46202,651.98218,246.03235,011.10248,785.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.40%7.40%7.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)161,101.90162,628.93164,155.96
Year 2 PV (M)160,071.07163,119.98166,197.65
Year 3 PV (M)159,026.36163,591.44168,243.05
Year 4 PV (M)157,968.58164,043.61170,292.19
Year 5 PV (M)156,898.51164,476.77172,345.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,776,471.393,958,876.374,148,262.42
Equity Value (M)4,571,537.824,776,737.104,989,496.34
Shares Outstanding (M)927.64927.64927.64
Fair Value$4,928.11$5,149.32$5,378.67
Upside / Downside85.97%94.31%102.97%

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