Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Powell Industries, Inc. (POWL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$186.57 - $320.35$244.34
Multi-Stage$186.57 - $204.31$195.28
Blended Fair Value$219.81
Current Price$210.45
Upside4.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.30%0.41%1.061.041.021.001.000.990.990.980.980.97
YoY Growth--1.71%1.98%1.42%0.75%0.63%0.57%0.69%0.35%0.25%-4.15%
Dividend Yield--0.50%0.47%1.15%2.86%3.38%3.36%2.01%3.91%3.40%2.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)175.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)162.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.0821.9213.15
Cash Retained (M)162.56162.56162.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.08-21.92-13.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)127.49140.64149.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12.1712.1712.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share10.4711.5512.27
LTM Dividend per Share1.051.051.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share10.4711.5512.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.5212.6013.33
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate3.25%4.25%5.25%
Fair Value$186.57$244.34$320.35
Upside / Downside-11.35%16.11%52.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)175.38182.84190.61198.72207.17215.98222.46
Payout Ratio7.31%23.85%40.39%56.92%73.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.8243.6076.98113.12152.19194.38205.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.63%9.63%9.63%
Growth Rate3.25%4.25%5.25%
Year 1 PV (M)39.3939.7740.15
Year 2 PV (M)62.8364.0565.28
Year 3 PV (M)83.4085.8588.34
Year 4 PV (M)101.37105.36109.46
Year 5 PV (M)116.97122.74128.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,867.451,959.652,055.45
Equity Value (M)2,271.402,377.412,487.43
Shares Outstanding (M)12.1712.1712.17
Fair Value$186.57$195.28$204.31
Upside / Downside-11.35%-7.21%-2.92%

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