Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

Pool Corporation (POOL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$246.84 - $623.51$371.70
Multi-Stage$175.59 - $191.59$183.44
Blended Fair Value$277.57
Current Price$310.07
Upside-10.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.48%16.93%4.784.454.013.182.452.231.851.541.321.15
YoY Growth--7.27%11.18%25.96%30.08%9.74%20.66%19.65%16.64%15.38%14.67%
Dividend Yield--1.50%1.11%1.17%0.75%0.71%1.13%1.10%1.06%1.11%1.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)412.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)184.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)228.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)82.4251.5130.91
Cash Retained (M)228.00228.00228.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-82.42-51.51-30.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)145.58176.49197.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37.5937.5937.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.874.695.24
LTM Dividend per Share4.904.904.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.874.695.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.779.5910.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$246.84$371.70$623.51
Upside / Downside-20.39%19.88%101.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)412.12438.90467.43497.82530.17564.63581.57
Payout Ratio44.68%53.74%62.81%71.87%80.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)184.12235.87293.57357.78429.10508.17537.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)213.88215.90217.93
Year 2 PV (M)241.38245.97250.61
Year 3 PV (M)266.74274.39282.20
Year 4 PV (M)290.07301.23312.70
Year 5 PV (M)311.50326.54342.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,277.545,532.455,797.11
Equity Value (M)6,601.106,896.497,202.71
Shares Outstanding (M)37.5937.5937.59
Fair Value$175.59$183.44$191.59
Upside / Downside-43.37%-40.84%-38.21%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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