Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Marcopolo S.A. (POMO3.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$62.04 - $202.17$189.46
Multi-Stage$27.14 - $29.67$28.39
Blended Fair Value$108.92
Current Price$8.91
Upside1,122.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS51.56%18.46%0.560.290.080.010.060.070.030.010.100.07
YoY Growth--97.55%278.05%436.82%-76.36%-15.61%144.64%97.72%-85.53%36.23%-28.68%
Dividend Yield--9.20%4.09%3.28%0.79%3.30%4.46%1.22%0.62%6.45%5.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,197.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)697.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)499.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)239.41149.6389.78
Cash Retained (M)499.12499.12499.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-239.41-149.63-89.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)259.71349.49409.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,177.561,177.561,177.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.220.300.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.220.300.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.810.890.94
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$62.04$189.46$202.17
Upside / Downside596.32%2,026.41%2,169.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,197.071,274.881,357.751,446.001,539.991,640.091,689.30
Payout Ratio58.30%64.64%70.98%77.32%83.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)697.95824.13963.771,118.081,288.371,476.081,562.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)763.82771.06778.30
Year 2 PV (M)827.87843.64859.56
Year 3 PV (M)890.14915.69941.73
Year 4 PV (M)950.65987.211,024.81
Year 5 PV (M)1,009.451,058.201,108.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,520.9228,850.1930,230.34
Equity Value (M)31,962.8533,426.0034,943.57
Shares Outstanding (M)1,177.561,177.561,177.56
Fair Value$27.14$28.39$29.67
Upside / Downside204.64%218.58%233.05%

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