Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

P.T. Bank Pan Indonesia Tbk (PNBN.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$958.32 - $1,451.71$1,190.50
Multi-Stage$2,087.74 - $2,298.55$2,191.07
Blended Fair Value$1,690.78
Current Price$1,080.00
Upside56.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.008.0319.980.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-59.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.70%1.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,669,386.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,010,762.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,658,624.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)533,877.20333,673.25200,203.95
Cash Retained (M)1,658,624.001,658,624.001,658,624.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-533,877.20-333,673.25-200,203.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,124,746.801,324,950.751,458,420.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24,075.1824,075.1824,075.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share46.7255.0360.58
LTM Dividend per Share41.9841.9841.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share46.7255.0360.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend88.7097.02102.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate-2.27%-1.27%-0.27%
Fair Value$958.32$1,190.50$1,451.71
Upside / Downside-11.27%10.23%34.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,669,386.002,635,369.142,601,785.782,568,630.372,535,897.482,503,581.712,578,689.16
Payout Ratio37.86%48.29%58.72%69.15%79.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,010,762.001,272,671.671,527,742.001,776,104.772,017,889.512,253,223.542,385,287.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate-2.27%-1.27%-0.27%
Year 1 PV (M)1,179,888.831,191,962.311,204,035.79
Year 2 PV (M)1,313,104.981,340,115.761,367,401.52
Year 3 PV (M)1,415,281.151,459,173.801,503,964.70
Year 4 PV (M)1,490,720.551,552,680.051,616,551.20
Year 5 PV (M)1,543,220.031,623,809.271,707,730.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,320,395.8945,582,651.4047,938,445.70
Equity Value (M)50,262,611.4452,750,392.6055,338,129.60
Shares Outstanding (M)24,075.1824,075.1824,075.18
Fair Value$2,087.74$2,191.07$2,298.55
Upside / Downside93.31%102.88%112.83%

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