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Definitive Analysis

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PT Pembangunan Jaya Ancol Tbk (PJAA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: LeisureSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$474.11 - $655.71$565.41
Multi-Stage$1,310.03 - $1,449.26$1,378.20
Blended Fair Value$971.81
Current Price$474.00
Upside105.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.60%-4.99%32.0029.000.001.800.0053.0052.0031.0069.0065.00
YoY Growth--10.34%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%1.92%67.74%-55.07%6.15%21.72%
Dividend Yield--6.34%3.28%0.00%0.34%0.00%12.16%3.82%2.21%3.92%3.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)139,660.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38,400.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)101,260.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27,932.0017,457.5010,474.50
Cash Retained (M)101,260.00101,260.00101,260.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-27,932.00-17,457.50-10,474.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)73,328.0083,802.5090,785.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.001,600.001,600.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share45.8352.3856.74
LTM Dividend per Share24.0024.0024.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share45.8352.3856.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend69.8376.3880.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-6.99%-5.99%-4.99%
Fair Value$474.11$565.41$655.71
Upside / Downside0.02%19.28%38.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)139,660.00131,291.79123,424.98116,029.54109,077.23102,541.49105,617.73
Payout Ratio27.50%40.00%52.50%65.00%77.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38,400.0052,511.8364,794.6775,417.0484,533.8492,287.3497,696.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.71%6.71%6.71%
Growth Rate-6.99%-5.99%-4.99%
Year 1 PV (M)48,687.7849,211.2649,734.74
Year 2 PV (M)55,701.2556,905.4758,122.55
Year 3 PV (M)60,111.5762,071.4064,073.38
Year 4 PV (M)62,471.5165,201.8668,020.75
Year 5 PV (M)63,234.8466,708.1570,332.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,805,833.901,905,023.342,008,524.24
Equity Value (M)2,096,040.852,205,121.482,318,808.10
Shares Outstanding (M)1,600.001,600.001,600.00
Fair Value$1,310.03$1,378.20$1,449.26
Upside / Downside176.38%190.76%205.75%

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