Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PGG Wrightson Limited (PGW.NZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.18 - $1.68$1.43
Multi-Stage$3.34 - $3.68$3.51
Blended Fair Value$2.47
Current Price$2.09
Upside18.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-31.47%-26.67%0.030.100.290.310.120.170.220.390.390.38
YoY Growth---75.54%-64.25%-6.94%149.72%-25.64%-23.65%-43.89%0.32%1.48%-31.79%
Dividend Yield--1.20%5.81%7.03%7.06%3.64%6.16%4.11%5.89%6.68%9.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.751.721.03
Cash Retained (M)4.074.074.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.75-1.72-1.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.322.353.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)75.4875.4875.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.150.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate-5.23%-4.23%-3.23%
Fair Value$1.18$1.43$1.68
Upside / Downside-43.52%-31.73%-19.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.7313.1512.5912.0611.5511.0611.39
Payout Ratio70.38%74.31%78.23%82.15%86.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.669.779.859.919.949.9510.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate-5.23%-4.23%-3.23%
Year 1 PV (M)9.089.189.27
Year 2 PV (M)8.518.698.87
Year 3 PV (M)7.968.218.47
Year 4 PV (M)7.427.748.07
Year 5 PV (M)6.917.287.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)212.08223.51235.43
Equity Value (M)251.97264.62277.79
Shares Outstanding (M)75.4875.4875.48
Fair Value$3.34$3.51$3.68
Upside / Downside59.71%67.73%76.08%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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