Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc. (PBHC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$195.63 - $289.26$271.08
Multi-Stage$47.62 - $52.15$49.84
Blended Fair Value$160.46
Current Price$15.68
Upside923.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.86%22.36%0.500.460.430.300.240.230.220.190.180.13
YoY Growth--8.73%7.36%43.35%24.98%4.22%6.44%15.95%2.08%42.20%92.72%
Dividend Yield--3.04%3.77%2.48%1.36%1.63%2.15%1.65%1.20%1.25%1.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.380.860.52
Cash Retained (M)5.095.095.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.38-0.86-0.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.714.224.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4.754.754.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.780.890.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.780.890.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.13%6.13%6.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$195.63$271.08$289.26
Upside / Downside1,147.66%1,628.81%1,744.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6.917.367.848.358.899.479.75
Payout Ratio26.39%39.11%51.83%64.56%77.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.822.884.065.396.878.529.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.13%6.13%6.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2.692.712.74
Year 2 PV (M)3.543.613.68
Year 3 PV (M)4.384.514.64
Year 4 PV (M)5.225.425.62
Year 5 PV (M)6.046.336.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)204.41214.29224.54
Equity Value (M)226.28236.86247.85
Shares Outstanding (M)4.754.754.75
Fair Value$47.62$49.84$52.15
Upside / Downside203.67%217.87%232.61%

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