Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$330.72 - $869.41$504.30
Multi-Stage$229.87 - $250.98$240.23
Blended Fair Value$372.26
Current Price$163.04
Upside128.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.97%14.56%4.132.852.322.141.021.971.821.631.431.28
YoY Growth--45.11%22.71%8.14%109.25%-47.94%7.92%11.81%13.99%12.15%20.28%
Dividend Yield--2.87%1.77%1.64%2.29%1.28%7.03%4.08%3.68%3.06%3.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)943.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)332.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)611.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)188.74117.9670.78
Cash Retained (M)611.30611.30611.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-188.74-117.96-70.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)422.56493.34540.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.4566.4566.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.367.428.13
LTM Dividend per Share5.005.005.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.367.428.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.3612.4313.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.12%9.12%9.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$330.72$504.30$869.41
Upside / Downside102.85%209.31%433.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)943.701,005.041,070.371,139.941,214.041,292.951,331.74
Payout Ratio35.22%46.18%57.13%68.09%79.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)332.40464.11611.54776.18959.631,163.661,231.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.12%9.12%9.12%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)421.31425.31429.30
Year 2 PV (M)503.95513.55523.24
Year 3 PV (M)580.64597.31614.29
Year 4 PV (M)651.67676.74702.51
Year 5 PV (M)717.35752.00787.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,399.7312,998.6413,620.48
Equity Value (M)15,274.6615,963.5416,677.79
Shares Outstanding (M)66.4566.4566.45
Fair Value$229.87$240.23$250.98
Upside / Downside40.99%47.35%53.94%

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