Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.64 - $38.61$30.33
Multi-Stage$32.52 - $35.55$34.01
Blended Fair Value$32.17
Current Price$47.25
Upside-31.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.24%-4.15%1.471.381.200.851.872.662.412.382.342.30
YoY Growth--5.93%15.29%41.12%-54.53%-29.69%10.53%1.19%1.60%1.99%2.44%
Dividend Yield--2.97%2.09%1.92%1.50%7.03%22.98%3.58%3.66%3.70%3.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,067.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,563.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)504.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)413.40258.38155.03
Cash Retained (M)504.00504.00504.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-413.40-258.38-155.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)90.60245.63348.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)986.13986.13986.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.250.35
LTM Dividend per Share1.581.581.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.250.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.681.831.94
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate1.40%2.40%3.40%
Fair Value$23.64$30.33$38.61
Upside / Downside-49.97%-35.81%-18.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,067.002,116.682,167.562,219.652,273.002,327.632,397.46
Payout Ratio75.62%78.49%81.37%84.25%87.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,563.001,661.461,763.741,869.991,980.322,094.872,217.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.60%8.60%8.60%
Growth Rate1.40%2.40%3.40%
Year 1 PV (M)1,515.001,529.941,544.88
Year 2 PV (M)1,466.511,495.571,524.92
Year 3 PV (M)1,417.791,460.151,503.34
Year 4 PV (M)1,369.091,423.901,480.34
Year 5 PV (M)1,320.621,387.041,456.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,982.5626,238.9327,545.35
Equity Value (M)32,071.5633,535.5335,054.94
Shares Outstanding (M)986.13986.13986.13
Fair Value$32.52$34.01$35.55
Upside / Downside-31.17%-28.03%-24.77%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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