Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Otter Tail Corporation (OTTR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Diversified UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$202.07 - $868.62$350.24
Multi-Stage$136.03 - $148.80$142.30
Blended Fair Value$246.27
Current Price$81.97
Upside200.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.03%5.87%1.861.741.631.541.431.321.261.201.151.10
YoY Growth--7.12%6.26%6.00%7.54%8.24%4.75%5.07%4.95%4.37%4.43%
Dividend Yield--2.31%2.02%2.26%2.47%3.10%2.98%2.55%2.77%3.02%3.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)278.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)85.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)193.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.7934.8720.92
Cash Retained (M)193.35193.35193.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.79-34.87-20.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)137.56158.48172.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)42.1042.1042.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.273.764.10
LTM Dividend per Share2.032.032.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.273.764.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.305.806.13
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate5.03%6.03%7.03%
Fair Value$202.07$350.24$868.62
Upside / Downside146.52%327.28%959.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)278.97295.79313.63332.54352.60373.86385.08
Payout Ratio30.69%42.55%54.41%66.28%78.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)85.62125.87170.66220.40275.51336.48356.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate5.03%6.03%7.03%
Year 1 PV (M)115.67116.77117.88
Year 2 PV (M)144.14146.90149.68
Year 3 PV (M)171.07176.00181.03
Year 4 PV (M)196.53204.13211.94
Year 5 PV (M)220.58231.28242.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,879.265,116.015,361.85
Equity Value (M)5,727.265,991.096,264.77
Shares Outstanding (M)42.1042.1042.10
Fair Value$136.03$142.30$148.80
Upside / Downside65.96%73.60%81.53%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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