Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Osotspa Public Company Limited (OSP-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.96 - $13.18$10.99
Multi-Stage$22.25 - $24.51$23.36
Blended Fair Value$17.17
Current Price$17.20
Upside-0.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.33%6.51%0.751.651.101.101.101.040.911.372.131.29
YoY Growth---54.55%50.02%0.00%-0.01%5.76%13.91%-33.28%-35.78%65.52%222.50%
Dividend Yield--5.55%7.92%3.57%2.93%3.12%2.91%3.38%5.02%7.81%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,541.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,102.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,439.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)708.30442.69265.61
Cash Retained (M)1,439.011,439.011,439.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-708.30-442.69-265.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)730.71996.321,173.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,007.213,007.213,007.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.330.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.330.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.031.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-3.53%-2.53%-1.53%
Fair Value$8.96$10.99$13.18
Upside / Downside-47.88%-36.11%-23.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,541.523,451.793,364.333,279.093,196.013,115.033,208.48
Payout Ratio59.37%65.49%71.62%77.75%83.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,102.512,260.712,409.552,549.392,680.602,803.532,967.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-3.53%-2.53%-1.53%
Year 1 PV (M)2,098.882,120.642,142.40
Year 2 PV (M)2,076.932,120.212,163.94
Year 3 PV (M)2,040.162,104.272,169.70
Year 4 PV (M)1,991.602,075.482,161.98
Year 5 PV (M)1,933.832,036.162,142.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)56,783.0359,787.8462,918.53
Equity Value (M)66,924.4370,244.6073,699.32
Shares Outstanding (M)3,007.213,007.213,007.21
Fair Value$22.25$23.36$24.51
Upside / Downside29.39%35.81%42.49%

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