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Definitive Analysis

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Old Second Bancorp, Inc. (OSBC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.98 - $161.90$72.30
Multi-Stage$26.85 - $29.37$28.09
Blended Fair Value$50.19
Current Price$17.29
Upside190.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS51.10%0.00%0.200.190.190.100.020.030.020.020.020.00
YoY Growth--5.22%0.78%92.48%288.87%-0.75%0.50%0.42%33.33%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.19%1.39%1.32%0.67%0.19%0.36%0.20%0.18%0.17%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)59.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.138.835.30
Cash Retained (M)59.3959.3959.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.13-8.83-5.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)45.2650.5654.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)47.6647.6647.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.951.061.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.951.061.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.191.301.37
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42.98$72.30$161.90
Upside / Downside148.60%318.17%836.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70.6375.2280.1185.3290.8796.7799.68
Payout Ratio15.92%30.73%45.55%60.37%75.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.2423.1236.4951.5168.3287.1092.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.41%8.41%8.41%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)21.1221.3321.53
Year 2 PV (M)30.4731.0531.64
Year 3 PV (M)39.3040.4241.57
Year 4 PV (M)47.6349.4651.34
Year 5 PV (M)55.4858.1660.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,085.611,138.051,192.49
Equity Value (M)1,279.611,338.471,399.51
Shares Outstanding (M)47.6647.6647.66
Fair Value$26.85$28.09$29.37
Upside / Downside55.30%62.44%69.85%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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