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Definitive Analysis

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Orca Energy Group Inc. (ORC-B.V)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.85 - $50.21$28.87
Multi-Stage$18.77 - $20.57$19.65
Blended Fair Value$24.26
Current Price$2.49
Upside874.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.48%0.00%0.300.300.310.330.280.230.850.000.000.00
YoY Growth---0.48%-4.91%-3.94%18.12%21.60%-73.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--13.32%9.90%8.44%7.86%6.29%6.27%23.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.232.021.21
Cash Retained (M)10.3810.3810.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.23-2.02-1.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)7.148.369.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.7719.7719.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.420.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.420.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate3.45%4.45%5.45%
Fair Value$18.85$28.87$50.21
Upside / Downside657.20%1,059.31%1,916.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16.1616.8817.6318.4119.2320.0820.69
Payout Ratio35.79%46.63%57.47%68.31%79.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.787.8710.1312.5815.2218.0819.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate3.45%4.45%5.45%
Year 1 PV (M)7.287.357.42
Year 2 PV (M)8.678.849.01
Year 3 PV (M)9.9610.2610.55
Year 4 PV (M)11.1611.6012.05
Year 5 PV (M)12.2612.8713.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)321.65337.50353.97
Equity Value (M)370.99388.41406.50
Shares Outstanding (M)19.7719.7719.77
Fair Value$18.77$19.65$20.57
Upside / Downside653.77%689.16%725.91%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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