Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Old Point Financial Corporation (OPOF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$166.18 - $337.58$316.35
Multi-Stage$56.91 - $62.34$59.57
Blended Fair Value$187.96
Current Price$39.25
Upside378.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.60%8.21%0.560.550.520.520.490.490.440.430.390.33
YoY Growth--0.75%6.70%0.76%4.59%0.36%10.34%2.91%10.84%17.62%30.80%
Dividend Yield--1.86%3.22%2.18%2.10%2.09%3.24%2.11%1.64%1.29%1.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.731.080.65
Cash Retained (M)5.815.815.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.73-1.08-0.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.084.735.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.095.095.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.800.931.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.800.931.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.491.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.03%6.03%6.03%
Growth Rate5.17%6.17%7.17%
Fair Value$166.18$316.35$337.58
Upside / Downside323.40%705.99%760.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8.669.209.7610.3711.0111.6912.04
Payout Ratio32.91%44.33%55.75%67.17%78.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.854.085.446.968.6510.5211.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.03%6.03%6.03%
Growth Rate5.17%6.17%7.17%
Year 1 PV (M)3.813.843.88
Year 2 PV (M)4.754.844.93
Year 3 PV (M)5.685.846.01
Year 4 PV (M)6.596.847.10
Year 5 PV (M)7.487.858.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)261.20273.86287.00
Equity Value (M)289.51303.08317.15
Shares Outstanding (M)5.095.095.09
Fair Value$56.91$59.57$62.34
Upside / Downside44.99%51.78%58.83%

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