Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Old National Bancorp (ONB)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.80 - $127.27$69.93
Multi-Stage$30.47 - $33.28$31.85
Blended Fair Value$50.89
Current Price$21.95
Upside131.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.40%14.78%0.570.540.530.280.280.270.250.220.200.17
YoY Growth--6.18%1.36%91.34%-0.13%3.88%8.90%13.16%7.50%21.57%15.30%
Dividend Yield--2.70%3.23%3.68%1.70%1.44%2.03%1.46%1.28%1.16%1.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)606.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)215.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)391.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)121.3075.8145.49
Cash Retained (M)391.34391.34391.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-121.30-75.81-45.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)270.04315.53345.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)334.34334.34334.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.941.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.941.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.451.591.68
WACC / Discount Rate8.92%8.92%8.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$44.80$69.93$127.27
Upside / Downside104.11%218.59%479.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)606.51645.93687.92732.63780.25830.97855.90
Payout Ratio35.48%46.38%57.29%68.19%79.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)215.16299.59394.08499.58617.14747.87791.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.92%8.92%8.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)272.48275.06277.64
Year 2 PV (M)325.98332.19338.46
Year 3 PV (M)375.86386.65397.64
Year 4 PV (M)422.29438.53455.23
Year 5 PV (M)465.43487.91511.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,326.458,728.629,146.19
Equity Value (M)10,188.4810,648.9611,126.41
Shares Outstanding (M)334.34334.34334.34
Fair Value$30.47$31.85$33.28
Upside / Downside38.83%45.11%51.61%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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