Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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ONEOK, Inc. (OKE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$136.06 - $393.58$213.50
Multi-Stage$96.17 - $104.81$100.41
Blended Fair Value$156.95
Current Price$72.97
Upside115.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.67%17.95%3.773.002.722.722.622.372.181.350.840.83
YoY Growth--25.77%10.02%0.25%3.87%10.14%9.18%60.96%60.24%1.65%14.73%
Dividend Yield--3.80%3.76%4.29%3.85%5.16%10.89%3.09%2.37%1.52%2.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,339.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,514.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)825.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)667.80417.38250.43
Cash Retained (M)825.00825.00825.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-667.80-417.38-250.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)157.20407.63574.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)613.80613.80613.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.660.94
LTM Dividend per Share4.104.104.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.660.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.354.765.03
WACC / Discount Rate8.87%8.87%8.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$136.06$213.50$393.58
Upside / Downside86.46%192.59%439.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,339.003,556.043,787.184,033.344,295.514,574.724,711.96
Payout Ratio75.29%78.23%81.18%84.12%87.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,514.002,782.013,074.253,392.723,739.604,117.254,358.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.87%8.87%8.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,531.262,555.252,579.24
Year 2 PV (M)2,545.032,593.512,642.44
Year 3 PV (M)2,555.522,628.882,703.63
Year 4 PV (M)2,562.912,661.482,762.86
Year 5 PV (M)2,567.402,691.402,820.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)46,266.5448,501.2450,821.45
Equity Value (M)59,028.6761,631.7664,329.78
Shares Outstanding (M)613.80613.80613.80
Fair Value$96.17$100.41$104.81
Upside / Downside31.79%37.60%43.63%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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