Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$199.03 - $859.52$483.69
Multi-Stage$109.38 - $119.57$114.38
Blended Fair Value$299.04
Current Price$80.94
Upside269.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.23%13.09%2.542.452.282.111.941.791.641.491.241.07
YoY Growth--3.72%7.57%8.10%8.34%8.49%9.14%9.83%20.14%16.53%43.78%
Dividend Yield--3.36%3.85%2.87%2.39%2.53%2.14%1.86%2.26%1.84%1.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)254.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)157.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)97.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.9931.8719.12
Cash Retained (M)97.0497.0497.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.99-31.87-19.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.0665.1877.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)58.8458.8458.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.781.111.32
LTM Dividend per Share2.682.682.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.781.111.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.473.794.01
WACC / Discount Rate7.06%7.06%7.06%
Growth Rate5.23%6.23%7.23%
Fair Value$199.03$483.69$859.52
Upside / Downside145.90%497.59%961.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)254.94270.82287.69305.62324.65344.88355.22
Payout Ratio61.93%67.55%73.16%78.77%84.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)157.90182.93210.48240.75273.97310.39328.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.06%7.06%7.06%
Growth Rate5.23%6.23%7.23%
Year 1 PV (M)169.26170.87172.48
Year 2 PV (M)180.19183.63187.10
Year 3 PV (M)190.69196.18201.77
Year 4 PV (M)200.78208.52216.48
Year 5 PV (M)210.47220.66231.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,484.765,750.376,026.17
Equity Value (M)6,436.146,730.227,035.24
Shares Outstanding (M)58.8458.8458.84
Fair Value$109.38$114.38$119.57
Upside / Downside35.14%41.32%47.72%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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