Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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OFG Bancorp (OFG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$111.84 - $331.39$176.70
Multi-Stage$74.37 - $81.27$77.76
Blended Fair Value$127.23
Current Price$43.49
Upside192.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.00%12.17%1.010.900.660.430.320.320.280.230.220.39
YoY Growth--11.30%36.29%52.60%37.11%0.04%12.34%21.25%4.06%-42.90%22.67%
Dividend Yield--2.51%2.52%2.66%1.63%1.40%2.83%1.40%2.23%1.89%5.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)199.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)149.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.9124.9414.97
Cash Retained (M)149.42149.42149.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.91-24.94-14.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)109.51124.47134.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45.3645.3645.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.412.742.96
LTM Dividend per Share1.111.111.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.412.742.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.523.854.07
WACC / Discount Rate8.82%8.82%8.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$111.84$176.70$331.39
Upside / Downside157.15%306.31%662.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)199.56212.53226.34241.06256.72273.41281.61
Payout Ratio25.13%38.10%51.08%64.05%77.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.1480.97115.61154.40197.74246.07260.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.82%8.82%8.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)73.7174.4175.11
Year 2 PV (M)95.8097.6299.47
Year 3 PV (M)116.47119.81123.22
Year 4 PV (M)135.79141.01146.39
Year 5 PV (M)153.83161.26168.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,797.962,933.103,073.42
Equity Value (M)3,373.563,527.223,686.57
Shares Outstanding (M)45.3645.3645.36
Fair Value$74.37$77.76$81.27
Upside / Downside71.00%78.79%86.87%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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