Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited (O39.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$160.78 - $580.19$511.55
Multi-Stage$74.46 - $81.41$77.87
Blended Fair Value$294.71
Current Price$16.31
Upside1,706.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.95%31.63%0.880.830.580.340.320.130.250.370.210.07
YoY Growth--6.80%42.48%69.69%5.25%143.69%-46.94%-32.24%76.27%185.47%30.31%
Dividend Yield--5.12%6.08%4.68%2.76%2.76%1.54%2.24%2.89%2.16%0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,199.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,588.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,611.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,639.801,649.88989.93
Cash Retained (M)6,611.006,611.006,611.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,639.80-1,649.88-989.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,971.204,961.135,621.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,524.294,524.294,524.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.881.101.24
LTM Dividend per Share1.461.461.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.881.101.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.332.552.70
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$160.78$511.55$580.19
Upside / Downside885.78%3,036.44%3,457.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,199.0014,056.9414,970.6415,943.7316,980.0718,083.7718,626.29
Payout Ratio49.91%57.93%65.95%73.97%81.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,588.008,143.229,872.7911,792.8013,920.7016,275.4017,229.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)7,536.827,608.257,679.69
Year 2 PV (M)8,457.138,618.218,780.82
Year 3 PV (M)9,349.569,617.969,891.44
Year 4 PV (M)10,214.7310,607.5611,011.61
Year 5 PV (M)11,053.2211,587.1012,141.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)290,245.08304,264.03318,819.51
Equity Value (M)336,856.54352,303.11368,324.48
Shares Outstanding (M)4,524.294,524.294,524.29
Fair Value$74.46$77.87$81.41
Upside / Downside356.50%377.43%399.14%

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