Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Nexus Industrial REIT (NXR-UN.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - IndustrialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$61.57 - $163.54$153.26
Multi-Stage$23.55 - $25.75$24.63
Blended Fair Value$88.95
Current Price$7.71
Upside1,053.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.78%29.02%0.430.390.360.220.160.150.140.100.060.05
YoY Growth--10.34%9.84%64.28%40.32%4.00%6.35%36.57%87.14%12.53%43.81%
Dividend Yield--6.33%5.21%3.68%1.71%1.85%1.84%1.73%1.26%0.68%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)78.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.739.835.90
Cash Retained (M)33.2233.2233.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.73-9.83-5.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.4823.3827.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)95.6595.6595.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.240.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.240.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$61.57$153.26$163.54
Upside / Downside698.53%1,887.84%2,021.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)78.6583.7689.2195.01101.18107.76110.99
Payout Ratio57.77%64.22%70.66%77.11%83.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.4453.7963.0473.2684.5496.98102.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)49.9750.4550.92
Year 2 PV (M)54.4155.4456.49
Year 3 PV (M)58.7460.4362.15
Year 4 PV (M)62.9865.4067.89
Year 5 PV (M)67.1270.3773.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,958.952,053.572,151.81
Equity Value (M)2,252.182,355.662,462.99
Shares Outstanding (M)95.6595.6595.65
Fair Value$23.55$24.63$25.75
Upside / Downside205.41%219.44%234.00%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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