Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

Northwestern Energy Group Inc (NWE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Diversified UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$79.28 - $204.14$120.12
Multi-Stage$82.90 - $90.69$86.72
Blended Fair Value$103.42
Current Price$58.61
Upside76.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.62%9.33%2.582.512.282.091.961.881.781.651.561.47
YoY Growth--2.95%9.99%9.01%6.76%4.54%5.43%7.83%5.75%6.34%38.51%
Dividend Yield--4.47%4.96%3.95%3.46%3.01%3.14%2.53%3.07%2.66%2.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)216.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)160.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.3927.1216.27
Cash Retained (M)56.2556.2556.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.39-27.12-16.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.8629.1339.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)61.3661.3661.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.470.65
LTM Dividend per Share2.622.622.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.470.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.833.093.27
WACC / Discount Rate7.06%7.06%7.06%
Growth Rate3.37%4.37%5.37%
Fair Value$79.28$120.12$204.14
Upside / Downside35.26%104.94%248.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)216.93226.41236.31246.65257.43268.69276.75
Payout Ratio74.07%77.26%80.44%83.63%86.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)160.68174.92190.10206.27223.49241.82255.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.06%7.06%7.06%
Growth Rate3.37%4.37%5.37%
Year 1 PV (M)161.82163.38164.95
Year 2 PV (M)162.68165.85169.04
Year 3 PV (M)163.30168.09172.96
Year 4 PV (M)163.68170.11176.72
Year 5 PV (M)163.84171.92180.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,270.964,481.584,700.42
Equity Value (M)5,086.295,320.935,564.42
Shares Outstanding (M)61.3661.3661.36
Fair Value$82.90$86.72$90.69
Upside / Downside41.44%47.96%54.73%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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