Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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NIKE, Inc. (NKE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.61 - $37.19$29.10
Multi-Stage$27.61 - $30.11$28.84
Blended Fair Value$28.97
Current Price$77.37
Upside-62.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.64%9.85%1.551.461.361.241.100.980.900.840.760.69
YoY Growth--6.04%7.80%9.53%12.15%12.81%9.01%7.16%9.71%10.86%13.68%
Dividend Yield--2.00%1.75%1.33%1.16%0.67%0.87%1.06%1.02%1.45%1.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,895.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,333.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)562.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)579.00361.88217.13
Cash Retained (M)562.00562.00562.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-579.00-361.88-217.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)-17.00200.13344.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,484.431,484.431,484.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.130.23
LTM Dividend per Share1.571.571.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.130.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.561.711.80
WACC / Discount Rate9.43%9.43%9.43%
Growth Rate2.36%3.36%4.36%
Fair Value$22.61$29.10$37.19
Upside / Downside-70.77%-62.39%-51.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,895.002,992.403,093.073,197.133,304.693,415.863,518.34
Payout Ratio80.59%82.47%84.35%86.23%88.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,333.002,467.822,609.072,757.042,912.003,074.283,254.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.43%9.43%9.43%
Growth Rate2.36%3.36%4.36%
Year 1 PV (M)2,233.412,255.232,277.05
Year 2 PV (M)2,136.962,178.912,221.28
Year 3 PV (M)2,043.652,104.132,165.79
Year 4 PV (M)1,953.492,030.952,110.69
Year 5 PV (M)1,866.451,959.422,056.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,744.3632,275.7133,867.47
Equity Value (M)40,978.3242,804.3544,698.33
Shares Outstanding (M)1,484.431,484.431,484.43
Fair Value$27.61$28.84$30.11
Upside / Downside-64.32%-62.73%-61.08%

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