Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

Sector

New Jersey Resources Corporation (NJR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$174.24 - $662.83$505.50
Multi-Stage$83.52 - $91.30$87.34
Blended Fair Value$296.42
Current Price$48.15
Upside515.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.86%8.93%1.791.641.501.271.161.171.030.950.870.82
YoY Growth--9.09%9.33%18.22%9.19%-0.72%13.21%8.58%8.92%6.72%7.73%
Dividend Yield--3.71%3.51%3.36%2.56%2.83%3.29%2.32%2.08%2.17%2.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)335.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)180.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)155.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.1341.9525.17
Cash Retained (M)155.56155.56155.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.13-41.95-25.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.44113.61130.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)100.70100.70100.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.881.131.29
LTM Dividend per Share1.791.791.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.881.131.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.672.923.08
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$174.24$505.50$662.83
Upside / Downside261.87%949.85%1,276.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)335.63357.44380.68405.42431.77459.84473.63
Payout Ratio53.65%60.92%68.19%75.46%82.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)180.07217.76259.58305.93357.21413.85438.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)201.38203.29205.20
Year 2 PV (M)222.02226.25230.52
Year 3 PV (M)241.99248.93256.01
Year 4 PV (M)261.30271.35281.68
Year 5 PV (M)279.98293.50307.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,203.647,551.587,912.83
Equity Value (M)8,410.318,794.909,193.79
Shares Outstanding (M)100.70100.70100.70
Fair Value$83.52$87.34$91.30
Upside / Downside73.45%81.38%89.61%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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