Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT PAM Mineral Tbk (NICL.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$358.07 - $513.97$434.29
Multi-Stage$632.25 - $690.83$660.98
Blended Fair Value$547.64
Current Price$1,050.00
Upside-47.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%17.506.740.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--159.48%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.87%4.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)545,696.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)542,330.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,366.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)109,139.4068,212.1240,927.27
Cash Retained (M)3,366.393,366.393,366.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-109,139.40-68,212.12-40,927.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)-105,773.01-64,845.74-37,560.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,635.4010,635.4010,635.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share-9.95-6.10-3.53
LTM Dividend per Share50.9950.9950.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share-9.95-6.10-3.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend41.0544.9047.46
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$358.07$434.29$513.97
Upside / Downside-65.90%-58.64%-51.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)545,696.99540,240.02534,837.61529,489.24524,194.35518,952.40534,520.98
Payout Ratio99.38%97.51%95.63%93.75%91.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)542,330.60526,769.04511,464.47496,413.32481,612.05467,057.16494,431.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)477,366.81482,237.90487,108.99
Year 2 PV (M)420,029.15428,644.91437,348.14
Year 3 PV (M)369,436.13380,861.19392,519.41
Year 4 PV (M)324,806.91338,268.64352,144.54
Year 5 PV (M)285,449.92300,313.96315,790.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,847,088.245,099,487.375,362,293.08
Equity Value (M)6,724,177.167,029,813.977,347,205.02
Shares Outstanding (M)10,635.4010,635.4010,635.40
Fair Value$632.25$660.98$690.83
Upside / Downside-39.79%-37.05%-34.21%

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