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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Grocery StoresSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$65.43 - $344.88$118.08
Multi-Stage$39.06 - $42.71$40.85
Blended Fair Value$79.47
Current Price$40.00
Upside98.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.81%0.00%0.470.390.390.392.210.270.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--20.11%0.85%0.24%-82.38%716.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.18%0.99%2.44%4.26%15.52%1.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)46.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.295.813.48
Cash Retained (M)35.4435.4435.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.29-5.81-3.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.1529.6331.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.2623.2623.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.271.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.271.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.601.751.85
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$65.43$118.08$344.88
Upside / Downside63.56%195.21%762.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)46.4449.4652.6856.1059.7563.6365.54
Payout Ratio23.70%36.96%50.22%63.48%76.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.0118.2826.4635.6145.8557.2760.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)16.7616.9217.08
Year 2 PV (M)22.2322.6523.08
Year 3 PV (M)27.4328.2129.01
Year 4 PV (M)32.3633.6134.89
Year 5 PV (M)37.0538.8440.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)772.75810.07848.82
Equity Value (M)908.57950.30993.58
Shares Outstanding (M)23.2623.2623.26
Fair Value$39.06$40.85$42.71
Upside / Downside-2.35%2.13%6.78%

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