Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.24 - $10.59$8.86
Multi-Stage$12.46 - $13.71$13.07
Blended Fair Value$10.97
Current Price$6.00
Upside82.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.001.091.871.811.721.392.46
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-41.85%3.28%5.14%24.14%-43.70%32.73%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%45.64%47.90%12.19%13.76%9.90%12.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)125.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)94.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.0915.689.41
Cash Retained (M)94.6994.6994.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.09-15.68-9.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)69.6079.0185.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)130.84130.84130.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.600.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.600.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate8.38%8.38%8.38%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.24$8.86$10.59
Upside / Downside20.74%47.64%76.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)125.44124.18122.94121.71120.49119.29122.87
Payout Ratio24.52%37.61%50.71%63.81%76.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.7546.7162.3477.6692.66107.36113.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.38%8.38%8.38%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)42.6643.1043.53
Year 2 PV (M)52.0153.0854.16
Year 3 PV (M)59.1861.0162.88
Year 4 PV (M)64.5067.1769.93
Year 5 PV (M)68.2671.8175.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,344.241,414.241,487.13
Equity Value (M)1,630.861,710.411,793.14
Shares Outstanding (M)130.84130.84130.84
Fair Value$12.46$13.07$13.71
Upside / Downside107.75%117.88%128.42%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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