Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

NewMarket Corporation (NEU)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$801.84 - $1,604.78$1,114.61
Multi-Stage$878.75 - $963.16$920.17
Blended Fair Value$1,017.39
Current Price$828.21
Upside22.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.26%4.91%10.148.998.919.088.828.648.518.768.027.48
YoY Growth--12.78%0.91%-1.92%2.99%2.13%1.53%-2.94%9.31%7.16%19.13%
Dividend Yield--1.79%1.42%2.44%2.80%2.32%2.26%1.98%2.18%1.77%1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)448.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)101.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)346.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.6456.0333.62
Cash Retained (M)346.52346.52346.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.64-56.03-33.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)256.88290.49312.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.469.469.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share27.1630.7233.08
LTM Dividend per Share10.7510.7510.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share27.1630.7233.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend37.9141.4743.84
WACC / Discount Rate7.77%7.77%7.77%
Growth Rate2.91%3.91%4.91%
Fair Value$801.84$1,114.61$1,604.78
Upside / Downside-3.18%34.58%93.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)448.20465.71483.91502.81522.46542.87559.16
Payout Ratio22.69%36.15%49.61%63.07%76.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)101.68168.35240.08317.15399.87488.58517.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.77%7.77%7.77%
Growth Rate2.91%3.91%4.91%
Year 1 PV (M)154.71156.21157.71
Year 2 PV (M)202.74206.70210.69
Year 3 PV (M)246.11253.36260.74
Year 4 PV (M)285.16296.41307.99
Year 5 PV (M)320.18336.04352.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,102.087,453.927,819.58
Equity Value (M)8,310.988,702.649,109.24
Shares Outstanding (M)9.469.469.46
Fair Value$878.75$920.17$963.16
Upside / Downside6.10%11.10%16.29%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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