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Definitive Analysis

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Nestlé S.A. (NESN.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$77.84 - $120.88$97.75
Multi-Stage$185.21 - $203.68$194.26
Blended Fair Value$146.01
Current Price$78.83
Upside85.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.57%1.31%3.003.012.932.952.962.782.742.742.672.67
YoY Growth---0.17%2.77%-0.82%-0.25%6.50%1.49%-0.03%2.72%-0.19%1.27%
Dividend Yield--4.01%3.09%2.73%2.32%2.84%2.65%3.37%3.27%3.65%3.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,509.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15,665.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,844.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,301.802,688.631,613.18
Cash Retained (M)5,844.005,844.005,844.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,301.80-2,688.63-1,613.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,542.203,155.384,230.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,601.482,601.482,601.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.591.211.63
LTM Dividend per Share6.026.026.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.591.211.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.617.237.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.02%-1.02%-0.02%
Fair Value$77.84$97.75$120.88
Upside / Downside-1.25%24.00%53.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,509.0021,290.5121,074.2420,860.1720,648.2820,438.5321,051.69
Payout Ratio72.83%76.26%79.70%83.13%86.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15,665.0016,236.9916,795.7517,341.4817,874.3918,394.6819,472.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.02%-1.02%-0.02%
Year 1 PV (M)15,118.9715,273.2815,427.58
Year 2 PV (M)14,562.4014,861.1515,162.94
Year 3 PV (M)14,000.2714,433.3114,875.18
Year 4 PV (M)13,436.8713,993.8614,567.98
Year 5 PV (M)12,875.8513,546.4414,244.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)411,819.33433,267.24455,599.62
Equity Value (M)481,813.69505,375.27529,877.98
Shares Outstanding (M)2,601.482,601.482,601.48
Fair Value$185.21$194.26$203.68
Upside / Downside134.95%146.43%158.38%

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