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Definitive Analysis

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Nordea Bank Abp (NDA-FI.HE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.51 - $207.60$77.06
Multi-Stage$34.01 - $37.19$35.57
Blended Fair Value$56.32
Current Price$12.61
Upside346.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.91%6.38%0.920.820.760.910.000.800.780.750.740.71
YoY Growth--11.89%8.32%-16.82%0.00%-100.00%1.49%4.65%1.59%3.32%44.23%
Dividend Yield--7.80%7.73%7.70%9.71%0.00%15.51%11.38%8.70%6.88%8.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,850.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,268.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,582.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)970.00606.25363.75
Cash Retained (M)1,582.001,582.001,582.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-970.00-606.25-363.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)612.00975.751,218.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,504.093,504.093,504.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.280.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.930.930.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.280.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.111.211.28
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate4.38%5.38%6.38%
Fair Value$43.51$77.06$207.60
Upside / Downside245.08%511.14%1,546.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,850.005,110.865,385.745,675.415,980.666,302.336,491.40
Payout Ratio67.38%71.91%76.43%80.95%85.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,268.003,674.974,116.264,594.395,112.055,672.096,004.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate4.38%5.38%6.38%
Year 1 PV (M)3,400.863,433.443,466.02
Year 2 PV (M)3,525.113,592.983,661.50
Year 3 PV (M)3,641.113,746.773,854.45
Year 4 PV (M)3,749.173,894.934,044.89
Year 5 PV (M)3,849.634,037.614,232.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)101,010.21105,942.47111,065.55
Equity Value (M)119,176.11124,648.20130,325.27
Shares Outstanding (M)3,504.093,504.093,504.09
Fair Value$34.01$35.57$37.19
Upside / Downside169.71%182.10%194.94%

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