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Definitive Analysis

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Nick Scali Limited (NCK.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$83.44 - $329.02$228.90
Multi-Stage$41.69 - $45.52$43.57
Blended Fair Value$136.24
Current Price$18.21
Upside648.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.09%16.84%0.640.680.730.580.610.440.470.350.300.16
YoY Growth---5.14%-6.67%25.00%-4.00%38.89%-8.16%36.11%16.13%82.35%21.43%
Dividend Yield--3.53%5.06%7.98%7.04%5.17%6.73%7.75%5.18%4.93%3.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)138.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)110.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)27.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.6617.2910.37
Cash Retained (M)27.8027.8027.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.66-17.29-10.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.1510.5217.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)83.5983.5983.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.130.21
LTM Dividend per Share1.321.321.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.130.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.321.451.53
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$83.44$228.90$329.02
Upside / Downside358.19%1,157.01%1,706.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)138.29147.28156.85167.04177.90189.47195.15
Payout Ratio79.89%81.92%83.94%85.96%87.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)110.49120.64131.65143.59156.52170.52180.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)111.51112.57113.62
Year 2 PV (M)112.48114.62116.78
Year 3 PV (M)113.39116.64119.96
Year 4 PV (M)114.24118.63123.15
Year 5 PV (M)115.04120.60126.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,918.003,058.943,205.28
Equity Value (M)3,484.663,642.013,805.17
Shares Outstanding (M)83.5983.5983.59
Fair Value$41.69$43.57$45.52
Upside / Downside128.93%139.27%149.99%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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