Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.03 - $78.63$44.67
Multi-Stage$19.70 - $21.53$20.60
Blended Fair Value$32.63
Current Price$25.52
Upside27.88%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.83%13.32%0.270.250.240.230.220.210.200.190.150.10
YoY Growth--5.01%4.72%4.38%4.89%5.14%3.44%6.31%25.42%49.07%34.17%
Dividend Yield--1.04%1.13%1.68%2.15%1.53%1.70%1.70%2.10%1.22%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)191.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)149.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.3423.9614.38
Cash Retained (M)149.80149.80149.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.34-23.96-14.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)111.46125.84135.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)157.45157.45157.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.710.800.86
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.710.800.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.071.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29.03$44.67$78.63
Upside / Downside13.75%75.05%208.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)191.70204.16217.43231.56246.62262.65270.52
Payout Ratio21.86%35.49%49.11%62.74%76.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.9072.45106.79145.29188.34236.38250.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.04%9.04%9.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)65.8266.4467.07
Year 2 PV (M)88.1489.8291.51
Year 3 PV (M)108.94112.07115.25
Year 4 PV (M)128.30133.23138.31
Year 5 PV (M)146.29153.35160.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,563.992,687.842,816.42
Equity Value (M)3,101.483,242.753,389.24
Shares Outstanding (M)157.45157.45157.45
Fair Value$19.70$20.60$21.53
Upside / Downside-22.81%-19.30%-15.65%

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