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Definitive Analysis

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Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$250.00 - $401.43$318.45
Multi-Stage$415.41 - $457.02$435.81
Blended Fair Value$377.13
Current Price$388.26
Upside-2.87%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.841.671.501.370.350.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--10.18%11.71%9.52%295.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.39%0.39%0.58%0.68%0.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)471.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)431.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)94.2458.9035.34
Cash Retained (M)431.80431.80431.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-94.24-58.90-35.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)337.56372.90396.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.9719.9719.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.9018.6719.85
LTM Dividend per Share1.971.971.97
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.9018.6719.85
(=) Adjusted Dividend18.8820.6521.83
WACC / Discount Rate7.30%7.30%7.30%
Growth Rate-0.23%0.77%1.77%
Fair Value$250.00$318.45$401.43
Upside / Downside-35.61%-17.98%3.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)471.20474.83478.49482.17485.89489.63504.32
Payout Ratio8.36%24.69%41.02%57.34%73.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.40117.23196.26276.50357.96440.67466.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.30%7.30%7.30%
Growth Rate-0.23%0.77%1.77%
Year 1 PV (M)108.17109.25110.34
Year 2 PV (M)167.09170.45173.85
Year 3 PV (M)217.20223.80230.53
Year 4 PV (M)259.45270.01280.89
Year 5 PV (M)294.70309.77325.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,249.127,619.778,005.42
Equity Value (M)8,295.738,703.059,126.48
Shares Outstanding (M)19.9719.9719.97
Fair Value$415.41$435.81$457.02
Upside / Downside6.99%12.25%17.71%

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