Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Middlesex Water Company (MSEX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$112.30 - $474.29$280.49
Multi-Stage$59.18 - $64.69$61.89
Blended Fair Value$171.19
Current Price$54.12
Upside216.31%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.69%6.71%1.301.251.161.081.010.900.830.780.730.70
YoY Growth--4.31%7.84%7.42%6.57%12.45%8.27%6.63%6.58%4.65%2.63%
Dividend Yield--2.03%2.43%1.48%1.02%1.28%1.49%1.51%2.12%1.97%2.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)43.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.63
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.605.383.23
Cash Retained (M)18.6318.6318.63
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.60-5.38-3.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.0313.2515.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.0118.0118.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.560.740.86
LTM Dividend per Share1.351.351.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.560.740.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.912.092.21
WACC / Discount Rate7.14%7.14%7.14%
Growth Rate5.35%6.35%7.35%
Fair Value$112.30$280.49$474.29
Upside / Downside107.50%418.27%776.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)43.0245.7548.6551.7455.0358.5260.28
Payout Ratio56.69%63.35%70.02%76.68%83.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.3928.9834.0739.6845.8652.6755.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.14%7.14%7.14%
Growth Rate5.35%6.35%7.35%
Year 1 PV (M)26.8027.0527.31
Year 2 PV (M)29.1229.6830.24
Year 3 PV (M)31.3632.2633.18
Year 4 PV (M)33.5134.8036.13
Year 5 PV (M)35.5937.3139.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)909.70953.70999.39
Equity Value (M)1,066.071,114.801,165.34
Shares Outstanding (M)18.0118.0118.01
Fair Value$59.18$61.89$64.69
Upside / Downside9.36%14.35%19.54%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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