Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Security & Protection ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$112.67 - $215.71$154.03
Multi-Stage$117.34 - $128.45$122.79
Blended Fair Value$138.41
Current Price$172.07
Upside-19.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.38%5.61%2.001.861.811.741.691.611.451.331.241.20
YoY Growth--7.18%2.79%4.25%2.95%4.81%10.96%8.97%7.06%3.58%3.94%
Dividend Yield--1.36%0.98%1.36%1.31%1.13%1.59%1.39%1.60%1.76%2.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)279.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)81.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)198.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55.9934.9921.00
Cash Retained (M)198.22198.22198.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-55.99-34.99-21.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)142.23163.23177.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)39.4339.4339.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.614.144.49
LTM Dividend per Share2.072.072.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.614.144.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.686.216.57
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate3.22%4.22%5.22%
Fair Value$112.67$154.03$215.71
Upside / Downside-34.52%-10.48%25.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)279.94291.75304.06316.89330.27344.20354.53
Payout Ratio29.19%41.35%53.51%65.68%77.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)81.72120.65162.72208.12257.07309.78327.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.42%8.42%8.42%
Growth Rate3.22%4.22%5.22%
Year 1 PV (M)110.21111.27112.34
Year 2 PV (M)135.77138.42141.09
Year 3 PV (M)158.63163.29168.03
Year 4 PV (M)178.98186.02193.27
Year 5 PV (M)197.02206.75216.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,845.734,035.664,233.03
Equity Value (M)4,626.344,841.415,064.61
Shares Outstanding (M)39.4339.4339.43
Fair Value$117.34$122.79$128.45
Upside / Downside-31.81%-28.64%-25.35%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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