Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG (MMK.VI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$120.24 - $191.13$152.51
Multi-Stage$265.81 - $292.95$279.11
Blended Fair Value$215.81
Current Price$76.40
Upside182.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.06%-10.98%1.514.233.533.223.223.223.123.021.214.23
YoY Growth---64.29%20.00%9.38%0.00%0.00%3.23%3.33%150.00%-71.43%-12.50%
Dividend Yield--1.92%3.80%2.30%2.00%1.84%2.85%2.74%2.45%1.11%4.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)235.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)199.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.0129.3817.63
Cash Retained (M)199.70199.70199.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.01-29.38-17.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)152.69170.32182.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.8619.8619.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.698.589.17
LTM Dividend per Share1.781.781.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.698.589.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.4710.3610.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.24%6.24%6.24%
Growth Rate-1.52%-0.52%0.48%
Fair Value$120.24$152.51$191.13
Upside / Downside57.38%99.62%150.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)235.06233.84232.63231.42230.22229.02235.90
Payout Ratio15.04%30.03%45.02%60.02%75.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.3570.23104.74138.89172.68206.12218.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.24%6.24%6.24%
Growth Rate-1.52%-0.52%0.48%
Year 1 PV (M)65.4466.1066.77
Year 2 PV (M)90.9492.8094.67
Year 3 PV (M)112.37115.83119.36
Year 4 PV (M)130.19135.56141.09
Year 5 PV (M)144.81152.31160.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,733.964,979.245,234.58
Equity Value (M)5,277.705,541.835,816.59
Shares Outstanding (M)19.8619.8619.86
Fair Value$265.81$279.11$292.95
Upside / Downside247.91%265.32%283.44%

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