Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Miller Industries, Inc. (MLR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$73.66 - $264.60$122.49
Multi-Stage$47.13 - $51.51$49.28
Blended Fair Value$85.89
Current Price$40.42
Upside112.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.22%2.55%0.750.710.710.710.710.710.710.710.660.63
YoY Growth--5.72%0.35%0.05%0.05%0.05%0.10%0.15%6.13%6.37%7.01%
Dividend Yield--1.77%1.43%2.00%2.51%1.53%2.50%2.27%2.82%2.52%3.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)21.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.033.772.26
Cash Retained (M)21.1021.1021.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.03-3.77-2.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.0717.3318.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.6011.6011.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.301.491.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.780.780.78
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.301.491.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.082.272.40
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$73.66$122.49$264.60
Upside / Downside82.24%203.04%554.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30.1432.1034.1836.4038.7741.2942.53
Payout Ratio30.00%42.00%54.00%66.00%78.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.0413.4818.4624.0330.2437.1639.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.48%8.48%8.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)12.3112.4312.54
Year 2 PV (M)15.3915.6915.98
Year 3 PV (M)18.3018.8219.36
Year 4 PV (M)21.0321.8422.67
Year 5 PV (M)23.6024.7425.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)456.24478.28501.16
Equity Value (M)546.88571.80597.64
Shares Outstanding (M)11.6011.6011.60
Fair Value$47.13$49.28$51.51
Upside / Downside16.61%21.93%27.44%

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