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Definitive Analysis

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McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.70 - $123.80$80.40
Multi-Stage$66.53 - $72.87$69.64
Blended Fair Value$75.02
Current Price$70.37
Upside6.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.34%8.89%1.671.551.471.351.221.121.010.880.810.76
YoY Growth--7.77%5.50%9.19%10.06%9.23%10.53%15.07%9.09%6.30%6.50%
Dividend Yield--2.03%2.26%1.98%1.42%1.45%1.53%1.49%1.65%1.64%1.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)778.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)474.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)303.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)155.6097.2558.35
Cash Retained (M)303.10303.10303.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-155.60-97.25-58.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)147.50205.85244.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)269.48269.48269.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.760.91
LTM Dividend per Share1.761.761.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.760.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.312.532.67
WACC / Discount Rate6.97%6.97%6.97%
Growth Rate2.71%3.71%4.71%
Fair Value$55.70$80.40$123.80
Upside / Downside-20.84%14.25%75.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)778.00806.87836.81867.86900.07933.47961.47
Payout Ratio61.04%66.83%72.62%78.42%84.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)474.90539.25607.73680.55757.93840.12889.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.97%6.97%6.97%
Growth Rate2.71%3.71%4.71%
Year 1 PV (M)499.26504.12508.98
Year 2 PV (M)520.93531.12541.41
Year 3 PV (M)540.08556.00572.24
Year 4 PV (M)556.88578.88601.53
Year 5 PV (M)571.48599.85629.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,240.5715,997.0716,783.32
Equity Value (M)17,929.1818,767.0419,636.82
Shares Outstanding (M)269.48269.48269.48
Fair Value$66.53$69.64$72.87
Upside / Downside-5.45%-1.03%3.55%

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