Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Merck Tbk (MERK.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19,777.42 - $78,757.29$53,496.62
Multi-Stage$11,264.83 - $12,333.07$11,789.09
Blended Fair Value$32,642.86
Current Price$2,860.00
Upside1,041.36%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS168.91%0.22%318.99321.18239.43123.32128.652.272,815.51273.4199.80490.54
YoY Growth---0.68%34.14%94.15%-4.14%5,571.43%-99.92%929.78%173.95%-79.65%57.25%
Dividend Yield--9.35%8.11%4.96%3.08%4.06%0.13%69.86%4.34%1.08%6.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)178,505.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)76,296.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)102,208.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35,701.0622,313.1613,387.90
Cash Retained (M)102,208.43102,208.43102,208.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-35,701.06-22,313.16-13,387.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)66,507.3779,895.2788,820.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)448.00448.00448.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share148.45178.34198.26
LTM Dividend per Share170.31170.31170.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share148.45178.34198.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend318.76348.64368.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate4.84%5.84%6.84%
Fair Value$19,777.42$53,496.62$78,757.29
Upside / Downside591.52%1,770.51%2,653.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)178,505.28188,935.30199,974.75211,659.23224,026.43237,116.25244,229.73
Payout Ratio42.74%52.19%61.65%71.10%80.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)76,296.8598,612.24123,274.92150,483.00180,449.74213,404.62225,912.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate4.84%5.84%6.84%
Year 1 PV (M)91,690.6292,565.1893,439.73
Year 2 PV (M)106,576.86108,619.63110,681.79
Year 3 PV (M)120,967.78124,462.30128,023.48
Year 4 PV (M)134,875.36140,095.25145,465.22
Year 5 PV (M)148,311.31155,520.55163,007.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,444,221.244,660,249.644,884,598.27
Equity Value (M)5,046,643.165,281,512.555,525,215.93
Shares Outstanding (M)448.00448.00448.00
Fair Value$11,264.83$11,789.09$12,333.07
Upside / Downside293.88%312.21%331.23%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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