Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Mercantil Financeira S.A. - Crédito, Financiamento e Investimento (MERC4.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.65 - $13.48$10.88
Multi-Stage$13.81 - $15.16$14.47
Blended Fair Value$12.67
Current Price$12.30
Upside3.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.51%0.00%0.220.080.080.100.120.170.220.000.000.00
YoY Growth--182.21%-5.81%-12.61%-21.07%-28.67%-23.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.34%1.13%1.29%1.18%1.16%1.76%2.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)36.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.324.572.74
Cash Retained (M)24.4024.4024.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.32-4.57-2.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.0819.8321.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.0041.0041.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.480.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.480.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.780.83
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate-0.25%0.75%1.75%
Fair Value$8.65$10.88$13.48
Upside / Downside-29.67%-11.56%9.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)36.5836.8537.1337.4137.6937.9739.11
Payout Ratio33.30%44.64%55.98%67.32%78.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.1816.4520.7825.1829.6434.1736.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.98%7.98%7.98%
Growth Rate-0.25%0.75%1.75%
Year 1 PV (M)15.0815.2415.39
Year 2 PV (M)17.4717.8318.18
Year 3 PV (M)19.4120.0020.60
Year 4 PV (M)20.9521.8122.69
Year 5 PV (M)22.1523.2824.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)470.90494.98520.04
Equity Value (M)565.97593.13621.36
Shares Outstanding (M)41.0041.0041.00
Fair Value$13.81$14.47$15.16
Upside / Downside12.24%17.63%23.23%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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