Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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AS MADARA Cosmetics (MDARA.RG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$153.02 - $334.07$313.07
Multi-Stage$50.93 - $55.71$53.28
Blended Fair Value$183.18
Current Price$13.50
Upside1,256.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.27%0.00%0.580.350.500.400.150.120.090.050.030.01
YoY Growth--65.79%-29.92%25.04%168.38%25.00%33.33%68.54%66.67%164.08%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.32%2.33%3.06%1.45%0.75%1.51%1.12%0.71%0.44%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.270.790.48
Cash Retained (M)2.842.842.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.27-0.79-0.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.572.042.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.783.783.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.540.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.930.930.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.540.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.341.471.55
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$153.02$313.07$334.07
Upside / Downside1,033.50%2,219.07%2,374.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6.356.767.207.678.178.708.96
Payout Ratio55.30%62.24%69.18%76.12%83.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.514.214.985.846.787.838.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3.923.953.99
Year 2 PV (M)4.324.404.48
Year 3 PV (M)4.714.844.98
Year 4 PV (M)5.095.295.49
Year 5 PV (M)5.475.736.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)169.00177.16185.64
Equity Value (M)192.51201.38210.59
Shares Outstanding (M)3.783.783.78
Fair Value$50.93$53.28$55.71
Upside / Downside277.25%294.64%312.69%

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