Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Mercury General Corporation (MCY)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$186.54 - $504.28$286.90
Multi-Stage$157.28 - $172.29$164.65
Blended Fair Value$225.78
Current Price$67.34
Upside235.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.75%-6.35%1.271.271.902.532.522.512.502.492.482.46
YoY Growth--0.01%-33.33%-24.78%0.42%0.41%0.43%0.43%0.50%0.60%0.66%
Dividend Yield--2.27%2.42%6.00%4.60%4.15%6.17%4.96%5.43%4.06%4.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)439.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)369.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)87.9254.9532.97
Cash Retained (M)369.27369.27369.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-87.92-54.95-32.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)281.35314.32336.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)55.3955.3955.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.085.676.07
LTM Dividend per Share1.271.271.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.085.676.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.356.947.34
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate4.16%5.16%6.16%
Fair Value$186.54$286.90$504.28
Upside / Downside177.01%326.05%648.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)439.62462.30486.15511.24537.62565.36582.32
Payout Ratio16.00%30.80%45.60%60.40%75.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.34142.39221.69308.79404.29508.83538.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate4.16%5.16%6.16%
Year 1 PV (M)130.95132.20133.46
Year 2 PV (M)187.49191.10194.75
Year 3 PV (M)240.16247.14254.26
Year 4 PV (M)289.16300.43312.02
Year 5 PV (M)334.68351.06368.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,529.117,897.538,280.24
Equity Value (M)8,711.549,119.479,542.81
Shares Outstanding (M)55.3955.3955.39
Fair Value$157.28$164.65$172.29
Upside / Downside133.57%144.50%155.85%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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