Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Gambling, Resorts & CasinosSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$110.30 - $319.51$173.15
Multi-Stage$73.91 - $80.76$77.27
Blended Fair Value$125.21
Current Price$105.84
Upside18.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.196.010.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---80.26%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.53%8.11%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)82.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)60.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.5310.336.20
Cash Retained (M)60.6060.6060.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.53-10.33-6.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)44.0750.2754.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.7618.7618.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.352.682.90
LTM Dividend per Share1.181.181.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.352.682.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.523.864.08
WACC / Discount Rate8.87%8.87%8.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$110.30$173.15$319.51
Upside / Downside4.22%63.60%201.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)82.6688.0393.7599.85106.34113.25116.65
Payout Ratio26.69%39.35%52.01%64.67%77.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.0634.6448.7664.5882.24101.92107.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.87%8.87%8.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)31.5231.8232.12
Year 2 PV (M)40.3741.1441.92
Year 3 PV (M)48.6550.0451.46
Year 4 PV (M)56.3758.5460.77
Year 5 PV (M)63.5766.6469.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,146.161,201.521,259.00
Equity Value (M)1,386.631,449.691,515.09
Shares Outstanding (M)18.7618.7618.76
Fair Value$73.91$77.27$80.76
Upside / Downside-30.17%-26.99%-23.70%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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