Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Analysis Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

McDonald's Corporation (MCD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$194.92 - $387.24$270.22
Multi-Stage$252.04 - $276.08$263.83
Blended Fair Value$267.02
Current Price$292.17
Upside-8.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.34%4.24%6.786.315.815.465.234.994.544.304.264.50
YoY Growth--7.44%8.75%6.37%4.42%4.77%10.01%5.40%1.01%-5.33%0.44%
Dividend Yield--2.17%2.25%2.08%2.21%2.33%3.02%2.41%2.75%3.29%3.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,415.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,061.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,354.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,683.001,051.88631.13
Cash Retained (M)3,354.003,354.003,354.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,683.00-1,051.88-631.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,671.002,302.132,722.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)717.85717.85717.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.333.213.79
LTM Dividend per Share7.057.057.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.333.213.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.3810.2610.84
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Fair Value$194.92$270.22$387.24
Upside / Downside-33.29%-7.51%32.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,415.008,687.358,968.529,258.799,558.459,867.8210,163.85
Payout Ratio60.14%66.11%72.09%78.06%84.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,061.005,743.566,465.017,227.148,031.838,881.049,401.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.16%7.16%7.16%
Growth Rate2.24%3.24%4.24%
Year 1 PV (M)5,308.125,360.045,411.96
Year 2 PV (M)5,521.885,630.435,740.04
Year 3 PV (M)5,704.845,873.886,046.23
Year 4 PV (M)5,859.366,091.996,331.49
Year 5 PV (M)5,987.686,286.306,596.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)152,542.33160,149.97168,058.16
Equity Value (M)180,924.20189,392.61198,184.58
Shares Outstanding (M)717.85717.85717.85
Fair Value$252.04$263.83$276.08
Upside / Downside-13.74%-9.70%-5.51%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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