Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Middlefield Banc Corp. (MBCN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.31 - $388.38$149.42
Multi-Stage$42.02 - $45.92$43.93
Blended Fair Value$96.68
Current Price$30.01
Upside222.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.87%11.78%0.800.850.680.520.470.450.470.410.290.27
YoY Growth---5.93%25.03%29.48%10.59%4.04%-2.49%12.54%44.87%7.66%1.51%
Dividend Yield--2.85%3.59%2.42%2.11%2.26%2.87%2.30%1.69%1.27%1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.171.981.19
Cash Retained (M)9.139.139.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.17-1.98-1.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.967.157.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.118.118.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.740.880.98
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.740.880.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.561.711.81
WACC / Discount Rate7.72%7.72%7.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$74.31$149.42$388.38
Upside / Downside147.63%397.91%1,194.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15.8416.8617.9619.1320.3721.7022.35
Payout Ratio42.36%51.89%61.42%70.94%80.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.718.7511.0313.5716.3919.5320.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.72%7.72%7.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8.058.128.20
Year 2 PV (M)9.339.519.69
Year 3 PV (M)10.5510.8611.17
Year 4 PV (M)11.7312.1812.64
Year 5 PV (M)12.8413.4614.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)288.18302.10316.55
Equity Value (M)340.68356.23372.35
Shares Outstanding (M)8.118.118.11
Fair Value$42.02$43.93$45.92
Upside / Downside40.01%46.40%53.02%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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