Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Matson, Inc. (MATX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$255.08 - $559.20$366.38
Multi-Stage$190.69 - $208.50$199.43
Blended Fair Value$282.91
Current Price$98.59
Upside186.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.79%4.55%1.371.371.461.401.201.141.081.030.980.94
YoY Growth---0.44%-6.25%4.58%17.09%5.38%5.08%4.73%4.97%4.55%7.32%
Dividend Yield--1.07%1.23%2.45%1.16%1.79%3.71%2.90%3.60%3.09%2.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)429.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)384.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)85.9453.7132.23
Cash Retained (M)384.70384.70384.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-85.94-53.71-32.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)298.76330.99352.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.7832.7832.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.1210.1010.75
LTM Dividend per Share1.371.371.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.1210.1010.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.4911.4712.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.16%6.16%7.16%
Fair Value$255.08$366.38$559.20
Upside / Downside158.73%271.62%467.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)429.70456.16484.24514.05545.70579.30596.68
Payout Ratio10.47%26.38%42.28%58.19%74.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.00120.32204.75299.12404.33521.37551.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.16%6.16%7.16%
Year 1 PV (M)108.87109.90110.94
Year 2 PV (M)167.62170.83174.06
Year 3 PV (M)221.57227.95234.45
Year 4 PV (M)270.99281.44292.20
Year 5 PV (M)316.16331.48347.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,164.515,414.795,674.68
Equity Value (M)6,249.726,536.396,833.72
Shares Outstanding (M)32.7832.7832.78
Fair Value$190.69$199.43$208.50
Upside / Downside93.41%102.28%111.49%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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